From the beginning of the season to March 10, Russia exported almost 2.5 million tons of corn, which is 33% more than in the same period last agricultural year, according to the analysis corn exports from Russia increased by 33%. Of the center for grain quality assessment. He refers to the Rosselkhoznadzor data on issued phytosanitary certificates. According to the” center for agroanalytics ” of the Ministry of agriculture, from the beginning of the season to February 20, 1.4 million tons of corn were shipped abroad, which is 16.5% less than the same period of the previous agricultural year. However, it does not take into account data on trade with the EEU countries for December-February, as well as deliveries to Iran from October to February. Data based on certificates is always greater due to duplications, says Eduard Zernin, Executive Director of the Union of grain exporters. In addition to Iran, Russia exports significant amounts of corn to Turkey, Vietnam and South Korea, adds the head of the analytical center “Rusagrotrans” Igor Pavensky.
According to the Russian grain Union (RSU), 1.54 million tons of corn have been exported since the beginning of the season. “Yes, there is still an unrecorded volume of supplies to Iran, it may be somewhere 500 thousand tons, but it may not be,” says Alexander Korbut, Vice-President of the Russian Railways. According to him, by February of last season, 1.7 million tons of agricultural products were shipped. Since the beginning of this year corn exports from Russia increased by 33%.
Korbut hopes that this year Russia will be able to repeat the result of last year and send abroad a little more than 2 million tons of corn (excluding the EEU), but this figure will be less than usual. So, in the 2017/18 season, the country exported 5.6 million tons of this agricultural crop, a year earlier — 5.2 million tons. Now, despite the high last year’s harvest (14.3 million tons), shipments are insufficient, Korbut continues. “I would like the result to be higher, but it probably won’t be,” he admits. Zernin believes that the export of corn has increased. “In the first half of the season, Russia began to engage more actively in sunflower and corn, as the basic operations for wheat were unprofitable,” he said.
According to Rusagrotrans, corn exports from July to February 12 amounted to 2.48 million tons, which is 37% more than last season. “The main shipments through the ports of the Caspian sea to Iran are 1.1 million tons and about 0.9 million tons through the ports of the Azov — black sea basin and primarily small ports,” Pavensky said. According to him, the rate of export of corn increased sharply in March due to increased supplies through Novorossiysk and Taman. This month, exports may grow to 450 thousand tons compared to 340 thousand tons. t in February due to the fact that in February, for the first time in three seasons, Vietnam became interested in Russian corn and corn exports from Russia increased by 33%
“The record for corn exports from Russia was set in 2017/18, when we exported 5.7 million.Russia is experiencing significant competition in the black sea region, primarily from neighboring Ukraine, which for the second year in a row exports record volumes of corn — more than 30 million tons, which is not comparable with the Russian export potential,” says Pavensky. Now Ukraine is the leading supplier of corn on the world market after the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Deliveries from Ukraine go primarily to Egypt, China, EU countries and Southeast Asia, he lists.
Korbut confirms that now it is very difficult for Russian corn to compete with Ukrainian corn, whose harvest last year was also good, and the country has excellent work in ports. “If Ukraine stops, it will be good for us. But I have great doubts that this will happen, ” adds Korbut. According to the forecast of the Foreign agricultural service of the us Department of agriculture (FAS USDA), Ukraine this season exports 32 million tons of corn and will be the fourth after the United States with 47 million tons, Brazil with 39 million tons and Argentina with 34.5 million tons.
In its latest FAS report, the USDA lowered the forecast for Russian corn exports from 5.7 million tons to 4.7 million tons. ” Yes, the Americans promised us more than 5 million tons of corn exports in the initial reports, but there is already a significant backlog, and the planned indicators will be very difficult to catch up,” Korbut admits. According to him, it is difficult to predict what will happen to exports and corn prices in the near future due to the fall in the ruble exchange rate. The area of agricultural crops this year will depend on weather conditions, but it is unlikely that they will be reduced, he adds.
According to the estimates of Rusagrotrans, the gross harvest of corn may decrease from 14.2 million tons in 2019 to 13.5 million tons due to a reduction in yield to 52 C/ha from a record 55 C/ha last year, while maintaining the area of sowing at the same level -2.6 million ha. “the area of sowing will remain at the level of last year, which may be due to extremely high competition from Ukraine in the foreign market, and, accordingly, relatively low prices within the country,” says Pavensky. Since the beginning of this year corn exports from Russia increased by 33%.
According to the Ministry of agriculture on March 5, the average price of corn (FOB Novorossiysk) was $177/t, falling over the week by $3/t.Domestic prices ranged from 8.9 thousand rubles/t in the Volga region to 10 thousand rubles/t in the South.