Sunflower export from Russia has been record since 2001 and exceeded 0.5 million tons, which will be a record high volume since the 2000/01 season, when 0.7 million tons were delivered abroad, SovEcon analytical center predicts. Last season, export amounted to 0.45 million tons. According to experts, at the end of October, shipments amounted to 30 thousand tons – the highest figure for this month over the past few years. For comparison, in October 2018, only 6 thousand tons of sunflower were exported.
SovEcon explains the intensification of shipments by the collapse in prices due to a record crop: since the end of September, sunflower has fallen in price by more than 3.3 thousand rubles / ton or by 17.5% to 15.65 thousand rubles / ton. Thus, prices came even closer to the five-year low (15.55 thousand rubles per ton in November 2014). Earlier, the center warned that in the near future the negative dynamics will continue, as many processors have replenished stocks and are waiting for even lower prices. Now SovEcon also notes a weak demand from processors, including because many did not have free capacity to store oilseeds.
According to the data of the analytical company “ProZerno”, by October 25, sunflower cost an average of about 16.7 thousand rubles / ton against 19 thousand rubles / ton in the same period of 2018. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in September, the purchase price of sunflower by industrial enterprises decreased by 8% compared to August. The statistics agency recorded the lowest purchase prices last month in the Oryol region (16.85 thousand rubles / t) and Bashkortostan (16.9 thousand rubles / t), the highest price was in Tatarstan (22.75 thousand rubles ./t).
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of October 31, sunflower was threshed from 7.3 million hectares, or 85.4% of the sown area, 13.5 million tons were obtained with a yield of 18.6 c / ha. Last year, at that time, the harvest amounted to 11.1 million tons with a yield of 15.8 c / ha. By the end of last week, the leaders in the gross harvest of sunflower were the Saratov (about 1.5 million tons), Rostov (1.4 million tons) and Voronezh (1.15 million tons) regions. Also, the Krasnodar Territory (1 million tons) and the Volgograd Region (926 thousand tons) were included in the top 5, it follows from the monitoring of the “Center for Agricultural Analytics”. Industry experts predict that due to the expansion of crops, as well as an increase in the average harvest per hectare, this year the sunflower crop will update the record and can reach 14.2 million tons. Total sunflower export from Russia has been record since 2001 and exceeded 0.5 million tons.
The Oil and Fat Union previously predicted that by the end of the calendar year 2019, sunflower exports could reach 700 thousand tons. According to the results of the first half of the year, shipments were at the level of 266 thousand tons against 90 thousand tons in January-June last year. At the same time, the union drew attention to the fact that if the task is to fulfill the targets for the export of processed products, then you need to either increase the duty on the seeds from 6.5% to 20%, or limit the supply.
However, the leading expert of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Daniil Khotko does not expect growth in sunflower exports. Earlier, he told Agroinvestor that shipments would remain at the level of the previous season, while supplies of sunflower oil abroad would increase. The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA) in October estimated the potential for the export of sunflower from Russia in 2019/20 at 200 thousand tons against 330 thousand tons in 2018/19. Deliveries of sunflower oil, according to its calculations, should increase from 2.4 million tons to 2.6 million tons. True, American analysts estimated the October forecast for sunflower harvests at 13 million tons (excluding Crimea) and sunflower export from Russia has been record since 2001.