Russian farmers have 6% more wheat stocks than a year ago and wheat export price rose maximum since the start of this season!
Last week for Russian wheat export price rose maximum by $ 3 to $ 197.5 / ton (FOB, 12.5% protein), which was the highest level since the beginning of the season, SovEcon monitoring showed. According to the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), the price for the week increased by $ 4.5 to $ 199 / ton. Monitoring by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture recorded an increase of $ 3 to $ 197 / ton, of the analytical center Rusagrotrans – by $ 5 to $ 195-197 / ton with delivery in November. Last season at this time, the average price of Russian wheat was much higher and amounted to $ 228 / ton.
“Strengthening is supported by strong import demand and continued growth in stock markets. Over the past week, futures in Paris and Chicago grew by 2-4%, supported by active exports from the EU and the US, as well as expectations of progress in the next negotiations between Beijing and Washington, “the SovEcon report said. The Egyptian State Food Procurement Agency (GASC) at the last tender acquired 180 thousand tons of Russian wheat at a price of $ 205-206.5 per ton FOB ($ 220-222 / t C&F) and 115 thousand tons of Ukrainian wheat ($ 202-207 FOB). At the same time, the price on C&F terms increased by about $ 2 compared to the previous tender and is the highest level this season, SovEcon notes.
Purchase prices in deep-sea ports rose by 100-400 rubles to 11,400-12,000 rubles / ton (CPT) to seasonal highs, which were recorded in late July – early August. “It seems that several traders urgently need to get more grain in order to fulfill their obligations. As usual, many farmers feel the difficulties of traders and stop any sales, expecting higher prices, ”say SovEcon analysts. So wheat export price rose maximum at last time!
The analytical center “Rusagrotrans” estimated the growth of purchase prices at 450 rubles, to the level of 12000-12300 rubles / ton, which is $ 187-192 per ton. At the same time, foreign sales for October went at a price of $ 184-189 per ton. Thus, it follows from the data of the analytical center that for the first time, wheat purchase prices exceeded export prices amid rising domestic prices in the South and high prices in the regions of the Center and the Volga region.
According to the FCS, from July 1 to September 30, Russia exported 13.2 million tons of grain, which is 13.5% lower than the same period last year. Including wheat, 11.4 million tons were exported. By October 1, according to Rosstat materials, stocks of wheat in agricultural enterprises were 6% higher than last year’s level by this date and amounted to 19.7 million tons. Including in the Southern and Central Federal Districts, they exceeded last year by 10% (4.7 million tons and 6.3 million tons, respectively), including in the Rostov Region – by 19%, in the Krasnodar Territory – by 4%. In the Volga region, on the contrary, the stocks of farmers in annual terms decreased by 9% to 2.8 million tons, in the Stavropol Territory – by 0.3% to 2.3 million tons.
Meanwhile, on the eve of the experts again reported on the adjustment of forecasts of grain harvest in Russia this season. Thus, the Russian Grain Union raised the estimate of wheat harvest from 75.8 million tons to 77 million tons, and total grain production – up to 123.5 million tons, said Union President Arkady Zlochevsky. IKAR raised its forecast for grain yield by 0.7 million tons to 122.7 million tons, including wheat – by 0.2 million tons to 75.6 million tons, Reuters reports. At the end of last week, SovEcon announced an increase in the forecast for gross grain harvest by 2.1 million tons to 120.3 million tons. Including wheat – by 0.5 million tons to 75.4 million tons, “primarily because of the high productivity in the Urals.” Wheat export price rose maximum and this is very good!